@Article{FerreiraMira:2020:PoOcPu,
               author = "Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende and Miranda, Jarbas Honorio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
                title = "Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in 
                         Paran{\'a}, under scenarios of climate change",
              journal = "International Journal of Biometeorology",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "64",
               number = "7",
                pages = "1051--1062",
                month = "July",
             abstract = "In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to 
                         evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn 
                         crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation 
                         measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional 
                         climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn 
                         common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Parana 
                         (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model 
                         CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model 
                         from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to 
                         simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted 
                         to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with 
                         the minimum temperature lower than 8 degrees C, the maximum 
                         temperature higher than 32 degrees C, average temperature between 
                         16 and 23 degrees C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In 
                         Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland 
                         Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum 
                         temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, 
                         approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical 
                         simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum 
                         and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease 
                         relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with 
                         the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution 
                         of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change 
                         in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a 
                         tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions 
                         to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is 
                         greater in Historical simulation when compared to future 
                         scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the 
                         potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the 
                         Normalseason.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6",
                 issn = "0020-7128",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ferreira_pontential.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}